A simulation analysis shows that a 30 percent connected vehicle (CV) penetration rate can reduce total delay up to 60 percent during a no-notice evacuation event.

Simulation of no-notice evacuations in East St. Louis, Illinois with different levels of connected vehicle penetration.

January 2017
East St. Louis; Illinois; United States

Summary Information

Evacuation orders placed without any notice or warning can place substantial demands on transportation systems. Connected vehicle (CV) technology, with real-time vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communications can help emergency managers develop efficient and cost-effective traffic management plans for no-notice (as opposed to short-notice) evacuation events. The primary way it is expected for CVs to influence performance of an evacuation is by exchanging real-time information about downstream traffic conditions. This research explored and evaluated the impacts of connected vehicles on the no-notice evacuation of a downtown metropolitan area.


Microsimulation software, VISSIM, was used to model a simulated road network of the East St. Louis, Illinois area during evacuation events in 2014 using traffic data provided by the Illinois DOT. Conditions were evaluated with CV penetration rates ranging from 0 to 30 percent. Average speed and average delay data were also collected.


Scenarios with a CV penetration rate of 30 percent were associated with a 60 percent reduction in total delay, despite an initial increase in delay. Scenarios with a longer duration were more likely to benefit from CV deployment.

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Evaluating the Impacts of Connected Vehicle Technology on Evacuation Delay

Author: Bahaaldin, Karzan et al.

Published By: Transportation Research Board

Source Date: January 2017



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Goal Areas


Typical Deployment Locations

Metropolitan Areas


evacuation, no-notice evacuation, connected vehicles

Benefit ID: 2018-01261