Potential impacts and hurdles for automated vehicle (AV) technology.
Nationwide, United States
Preparing a Nation for Autonomous Vehicles: Opportunities, Barriers and Policy Recommendations for Capitalizing on Self-Driven Vehicles
Summary Information
This paper reviewed the potential impacts of automated vehicles (AVs) in the United States. The report also discussed barriers to implementation and provided policy recommendations. A literature review was conducted to ascertain system benefits and impacts on traffic safety, congestion, and travel behaviors, and then a high level analysis was conducted to monetize benefits relative to market penetration.
Congestion benefits were estimated to accrue early after deployment followed by safety benefits as the system matures and market penetration levels increase.
- For example, with 10 percent market penetration, congestion savings represented about 66 percent of benefits and crash savings represented about 21 percent.
- At 90 percent market penetration, the distribution was 33 percent and 58 percent, respectively. With respect to cost savings, estimates were based on economic consequences as well as social impacts (comprehensive costs) to account for a wider range of consequences (i.e., such a pain, suffering, and the statistical value life).
- When including comprehensive costs, crash cost savings were about 300 percent greater than estimates from economic cost savings alone. The data below excerpted from the source report summarize overall results.
10% Market Share | 50% Market Share | 90% Market Share | |
---|---|---|---|
Lives Saved (per year) | 1,100 | 9,600 | 21,700 |
Fewer Crashes | 211,000 | 1,880,000 | 4,220,000 |
Economic Cost Savings | $5.5 B | $48.8 B | $109.7 B |
Comprehensive Cost Savings | $17.7 B | $158.1 B | $355.4 B |
Economic Cost Savings per AV | $460 | $1,080 | $1,690 |
Comprehensive Cost Savings per AV | $1,470 | $3,500 | $5,460 |
Congestion Costs
10% Market Share | 50% Market Share | 90% Market Share | |
---|---|---|---|
Travel Time Savings (Hours) | 756 million | 1680 million | 2772 million |
Fuel Savings (Gallons) | 102 million | 224 million | 724 million |
Total Savings | $16.8 | $37.4 | $63.0 |
Savings per AV | $1,400 | $830 | $970 |
Other AV Impacts
10% Market Share | 50% Market Share | 90% Market Share | |
---|---|---|---|
Parking Savings | $3.0 | $11.3 | $16.3 |
Savings per AV | $250 | $250 | $250 |
VMT Increase | 2.00% | 7.50% | 9.00% |
Change in Total # Vehicles | -8.30% | -31.00% | -44.80% |
Overall Impacts
10% Market Share | 50% Market Share | 90% Market Share | |
---|---|---|---|
Annual Savings: Economic Costs Only | $25.3 B | $97.5 B | $189.0 B |
Annual Savings: Comprehensive Costs | $37.6 B | $206.8 B | $434.7 B |
Savings Per AV: Economic Costs Only | $2,110 | $2,160 | $2,910 |
Savings Per AV: Comprehensive Costs | $3,120 | $4,580 | $6,680 |
Net Present Value of AV Benefits minus Purchase Price: Economic Costs Only | $6,050 | $11,430 | $19,130 |
Net Present Value of AV Benefits minus Purchase Price: Comprehensive Costs | $13,730 | $29,840 | $47,810 |
Assumptions
Number of AVs Operating in U.S. | 0.5 | 0.75 | 0.9 |
Freeway Congestion Benefit (delay reduction) | 5% | 10% | 15% |
Arterial Congestion Benefit | 13% | 18% | 25% |
Fuel Efficiency Benefit | 8% | 13% | 13% |
Non-AV Following-Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Benefit (Freeway) | 20% | 15% | 10% |
VMT Increase per AV | 10% | 10% | 10% |
% of AVs Shared across Users | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Added Purchase Price for AV Capabilities | $10,000 | $5,000 | $3,000 |
Discount Rate | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Vehicle Lifetime (years) | 15 | 15 | 15 |
Initial costs were assumed to add approximately $10,000 to the purchase price of a new vehicle at a 10 percent market penetration level, and then fall to about $3,000 per vehicle at a 90 percent market penetration.