Last-mile delivery technologies have taken three main forms: drones, robots, and autonomous vehicles. Each technology offers its own advantages and challenges. Stanford Business School examined how each of these technologies work, what sets them apart from each other, and their application to last-mile delivery. Retailers like Walmart with locations within five miles of 70 percent of the U.S. population were identified as likely early adopters of autonomous parcel delivery. Since most consumers are unwilling to pay high premiums for the convenience of autonomous delivery, early adoption is likely to rely on crowdsourced carpooling strategies. Due to the increased technical and regulatory challenges, autonomous vehicle deliveries are projected to be adopted five or more years behind drones and robots.

Self-driving technology cost per vehicle:

• 2014: $70,000 to $100,000
• 2025: $7,000 to $10,000
• 2035: Approximately $3,000