Ensure Vision-Based Software Have Reliable, Consistent Estimation of the 3D Volume of Objects to Prevent Model Overfitting on Crash Prediction.

Prediction Accuracy of a Video-Based Crash Prediction Tool Using Field Data from Two Signalized Intersections in Kansas Were Assessed.

Date Posted
02/29/2024
Identifier
2024-L01215

Evaluation of Near-Miss Crashes Using a Video-Based Tool

Summary Information

Vision-based vehicle trajectory data provides useful information for evaluating roadway safety. However, the prediction accuracies of using this approach are often not evaluated. This study investigated the accuracy of a video-based tool that predicted near-miss crashes at signalized intersections using two signalized intersections in Overland Park, Kansas. Video data from both intersections was collected on ten weekdays between February and March in 2021. About ten percent of the data were sampled for manual validation, including drawing vehicle trajectories and conflict spots, and measuring time in milliseconds. Two surrogate safety measures, namely Post-Encroachment Time (PET) and Time-to-Collision (TTC), were applied based on three conflict categories: critical conflicts, minor conflicts, and potential conflicts. In addition, three separate conditions were considered related to weather and traffic: rainy peak, sunny peak, and sunny off-peak conditions. Four performance measures were used to compare the manually and automatically extracted surrogate safety measures, including Mean Absolute Deviation, Root Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, and Root Mean Squared Log Error. An Analysis of Variation test was also conducted for each analysis. 

  • Ensure vision-based software tools have reliable, consistent estimation of the 3D volume of objects to prevent model overfitting. This study showed that the manual observation yielded comparatively lower values than the predicted values due to the limitations in the reliable, consistent estimation capabilities of the 3D volume of objects (finding the front and rear vehicle bumper) across a wide array of cameras and camera angles and road user types. It is important that algorithms address any overfitting issue that may be encountered in the process. 
  • Use four-season data when evaluating video-based crash prediction tools. This study suggested that the field data should be expanded with more data from different weather conditions in all seasons to factor all possible external conditions into prediction accuracy.

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