Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) have the potential to transform road transport by reducing crashes, enhancing productivity, freeing time for other activities, increasing road capacity as vehicles can travel closer in traffic, and improving accessibility for groups like the elderly. In this study, researchers quantified the benefits and costs associated with CAVs from 2020 through 2070 using various scenarios of possible CAV uptake published by the Australian Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics (BITRE). The analysis was based on a large set of assumptions, future projections of 2020 data, and evidence gathered from previous literature on CAVs.

Three BITRE scenarios were considered regarding the possible uptake of CAVs: i) ‘Base Case’ (also called the ‘Central Case’) scenario; ii) ‘Society Embraces AV’ scenario; and iii) ‘Broad Barriers to AV Adoption’ scenario. According to BITRE, uptake under all three of these scenarios is low until 2030, and then, 30 percent fleet penetration is reached by 2040 under the ‘Society embraces AV’ scenario, by 2050 under the ‘base case’ scenario, and by 2070 under the ‘Broad barriers to AV adoption’ scenario. Benefits and costs of CAVs were forecasted using a large number of assumptions including projections of historical data (year 2020) and evidence from the previous literature. It should be noted that the researchers emphasized the potential uncertainties associated with making long term projections of data as was done in this study, due to population growth, shifts in demand related to behavioral changes, as well as changes in technology landscape that might travel demand.

• High-level system costs in Australian Dollars (AUD) and US Dollars (USD CY2020) are shown below. This study estimated costs related to vehicles on the order of $473 billion AUD ($305 billion in USD)) from 2020 to 2070 under the ‘central case’ scenario, assuming the medium costs of $20,000 AUD per vehicle ($12,921 USD). 
• The total cost of annual pavement marking maintenance attributable to Level 4/5 CAVs between 2020 and 2070 was estimated to be $2.4 billion AUD ($1.55 billion USD).
• The cost of achieving 100 percent cellular coverage for paved roads across all of Australia was estimated to be in the order of around $10 to 20 billion AUD (6.5 to 13 billion USD).